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Ireland\u2019s economic growth is set to continue next year \u2013 but at a reduced rate, a leading think-tank has warned.<\/p>\nIreland\u2019s economic growth is set to continue next year \u2013 but at a reduced rate, a leading think-tank has warned.<\/p>\n
A report by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) found that while the economy is expected to grow by 3.8% this year, this is at a reduced rate compared to the expected growth outlook.<\/p>\n
The lower expected pace of growth reflects the slowdown in the global and European economies since the end of last year.<\/p>\n
The ESRI expects the economy to grow by 3.2% next year.<\/p>\n
The study estimates that the unemployment rate this year will average to 5.2%, falling to 4.8% in 2020.<\/p>\n
Consumption and underlying investment are expected to be important drivers of growth over the period, the report added.<\/p>\n
These predictions for 2019 and 2020, however are based on the assumption that the UK will leave the European Union with a withdrawal deal agreed.<\/p>\n
The report said: \u201cGiven the persistent uncertainties with respect to the form of the UK\u2019s withdrawal from the EU, the Quarterly Economic Commentary examines the impacts of various Brexit scenarios on the short-term outlook.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnder the most severe scenario of a disorderly no-deal, domestic real GDP is estimated to rise by just 1.2% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n
Last year, the Exchequer recorded a budget surplus of \u20ac106 million.<\/p>\n
The report said that was due to the substantial increase in corporation tax returns for the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile a surplus is a positive development, the sensitivity of key fiscal metrics to the activities of a small number of firms is an ongoing concern,\u201d the report\u2019s author added.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe exceptionally high levels of corporation taxes witnessed in recent years give rise to the possible presence of significant amounts of windfall tax receipts among the exchequer returns.<\/p>\n
\u201cA greater reliance on volatile tax receipts poses challenges for fiscal stability over the medium-term.\u201d<\/p>\n
It comes after the ESRI warned yesterday that a disorderly Brexit could cost some 80,000 Irish jobs.<\/p>\n
It found that in the event of a disorderly no-deal scenario, the economic output in 10 years will be 5% lower than if the UK stayed in the EU.<\/p>\n
The study also stated that employment would be 3.4% lower, which equates to around 77,500 fewer jobs.<\/p>\n