{"id":24680,"date":"2022-01-04T14:03:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-04T19:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/irishexaminerusa.com\/wp\/?p=24680"},"modified":"2022-01-05T11:05:39","modified_gmt":"2022-01-05T16:05:39","slug":"up-to-one-in-ten-had-covid-19-in-the-north-over-christmas-period","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/irishexaminerusa.com\/wp\/?p=24680","title":{"rendered":"Up To One In Ten Had Covid-19 In The North Over Christmas Period"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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On Tuesday morning there were 348 Covid-positive inpatients in hospital in the North, with 31 in intensive care (PA Images)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is likely that as many as one in 10 people in parts of the North had Covid-19 over the festive period, Northern Ireland’s chief scientific adviser has said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professor Ian Young said one in 20 tested positive in some areas, but with limits on PCR tests, it is likely the true figure was as high as one in 10 last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest figures from the North’s Department of Health, published on Tuesday, revealed a further 15 deaths of patients who had previously tested positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figures, which cover from midnight on December 30th to midnight on January 3rd, also notified 30,423 new cases over four days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Young told the PA news agency that the virus is transmitting at \u201cextraordinarily high levels in the community\u201d \u2013 higher than at any previous stage of the epidemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOmicron is very, very transmissible compared with other forms of the virus so what we\u2019re seeing is a very rapid rise to a peak and then hopefully an equally rapid fall after that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are parts of Northern Ireland where close to one person in 20 had a positive PCR test in the last week, and whenever you factor in the fact that not everybody gets tested then it is very likely that there were parts in Northern Ireland where at least one person in 10 had the virus last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019re quite at the peak in terms of case numbers yet but because we only have 20,000 tests a day available to us, roughly, in terms of PCR, it\u2019s going to be the case that increasingly the actual case numbers we measure aren\u2019t everybody who has the virus in the community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019ll see numbers rise a lot more than they are at the moment, but the virus will continue to increase probably for one to two weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Stormont Executive is to meet on Thursday to hear the latest updates in the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Young said any decision over further restrictions is for ministers to make, but any interventions at this stage in the Omicron wave would be less likely to be effective<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Young said he expects the peak in the Omicron surge in early to mid-January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of hospital admissions and occupancy he said expects a peak in mid to late January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said any restrictions \u201cwill always have some impact in terms of slowing down or reducing the rate of transmission\u201d, but would take around two weeks to affect case numbers and longer for hospital numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven the speed of this wave then intervention would have less effect now than it would have done earlier on,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hospital occupancy rate has been put at 105 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday morning there were 348 Covid-positive inpatients in hospital, with 31 in intensive care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Young described pressures in hospitals as \u201csevere\u201d and said the expected further increase in admissions will make things challenging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He encouraged the public to get vaccinated and follow public health advice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBoosters are the most effective way of protecting people against severe illness which leads to hospitalization. It is still possible to become infected with the virus even after a booster, but you\u2019re much less likely to need admission to hospital and that\u2019s becoming increasingly clear,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also urged the following of guidance such as those with symptoms not mixing with other people, meeting outdoors where possible or well-ventilated indoor settings, wearing face coverings and making use of lateral flow tests, particularly before mixing with others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof Young said the Delta variant is still circulating in the community but numbers have been falling steadily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is outcompeted effectively by Omicron and as a result Delta is fading away, probably more rapidly than would have been the case if we hadn\u2019t had the Omicron form of the virus,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have known for quite a while that Omicron is significantly less severe than Delta in terms of disease \u2013 the estimates were initially somewhere between 20-80 per cent less severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe still need more information on that, but increasingly it looks as though it is more likely to be towards the 50-80 per cent end of severity rather than 20-50 per cent\u2026 so that\u2019s good news and that should help to protect our hospitals against very large numbers, although admissions are rising, hospital occupancy is rising\u2026 and this is still going to be a very significant wave in terms of hospital pressures, particularly when combined with the number of staff who may be absent as a result of being infected.\u201d<\/p>\n

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