Polls suggest EU treaty will be passed

Campaigners are making their final arguments ahead of Thursday's vote in Ireland in a referendum on the EU fiscal treaty.

The treaty puts into law new rules about budgets in each county, and sets limits to the amount of debt government can run up, and targets and deadlines for reducing the current debt.

Three opinion polls published on Sunday suggest the referendum will be carried, although the result is far from a certainty.

For the Sunday Times, Behaviour and Attitudes found 45% will vote Yes, an increase of three points since their last poll five weeks ago.

30% said they will vote No, also up three, with 24% still undecided.

In the Sunday Independent, Millward Brown Lansdowne found 42% will vote Yes, up five points since their last poll 11 days ago.

The No side is up four to 28%, with 31% undecided.

Red C, for the Sunday Business Post, puts the Yes side on 49%, down one point since the last Red C poll for Paddy Power ten days ago.

No is on 35%, up four. The number of undecided voters is down three to 16%.

When undecided voters are excluded all three polls roughly break down with a 60-40 margin in support of the treaty.

However, with up to a third of the electorate still undecided about the treaty, the referendum is still all to play for.

At his party's Ard Fheis on Saturday night, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams, whose party is leading the anti-treaty campaign, said what he dubbed the 'austerity treaty' should be rejected.

"Austerity isn't working and won't start working on June 1st," he said.

"Right now if you do not like the policies of the government you can sack them or re-elect them. You won't be able to do that with unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Frankfurt and Brussels."

"That is undemocratic. Don't give up your power. Don't give your democratic rights away. And don't write austerity into the constitution," he said.

Mr Adams devoted just under four minutes of his leader's speech to the topic of the treaty.

Because Irish law demands that broadcasters devote exactly the same time to both sides of the argument during a referendum, Taoiseach Enda Kenny was given the same amount of time on Sunday night to make a televised address.

"It will create stability in the Eurozone," Mr Kenny said, "This is essential for growth and job creation.

"A strong Yes vote will create the certainty and stability that our country needs to continue on the road to economic recovery.

"This Treaty will not solve all of our problems, but it is one part of the solution."

Mr Kenny has been challenged to a live TV debate on the treaty by Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, but has turned down the invitation.

Mr Kenny has a reputation of being a poor performer on detailed issues unscripted, and his handlers see no reason to put him forward for a debate, given the Yes side's apparent march to victory.

Most of Ireland's political establishment favour a Yes vote with Fine Gael, Labour, and Fianna Fail all calling for a Yes vote.

Sinn Fein, The Socialist Party and a number of Independent TDs have been fronting the No campaign.

A result is expected by Friday afternoon.