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Tuesday July 6, 2010

Ireland's Long Recession Is Over

While most of the economic news was good, the Live Register reached a 20-year high (Photocall)

Ireland has climbed out of recession by recording economic growth for the first time since the end of 2007.

After eight straight quarters of decline, Ireland's GDP grew by 2.7 per cent in the first three months of this year.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used way of measuring economic growth around the world.

But before you crack open the champagne - a warning.

If you take the profits of foreign-owned companies out of the equation, Ireland's domestic economy (it's Gross National Product - GNP) shrank by another 0.5 per cent in the same period.

And unemployment figures show 444,900 people (13.4 per cent of the workforce) are signing-on the Live Register - the highest number in 20 years.

The good news is that Irish exports are performing excellently.

They expanded by 5.5 % in the first quarter.

Several sectors are showing signs of stabilisation or even growth.

And the recent slide in the value of the euro, means that it's cheaper for Ireland to export software, pharmaceuticals, food and services to its two biggest trading partners, the US and UK.

The bad news is that consumer spending - the single most important component of any economy - is still down in Ireland, and so too is government spending.

And while the economy is coming out of recession, there is not likely to be any significant growth in the employment this year.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the figures were "concrete evidence that the coordinated efforts taken by Government to address competitiveness, the public finances and the banking system are paying off with improved confidence and clear evidence of economic growth".

"Of course, unemployment is unacceptably high. But the best way to create and protect jobs is to return to economic growth," he said.

But Labour finance spokesperson Joan Burton warned that the real recession was far from over.

She said the jobless figures would be "well over half a million" were it not for the numbers of Irish people who had left the country looking for work elsewhere, and the number of immigrants who had returned from Ireland to their home countries since the economic downturn.

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