Road To Africa Shaping Up For Ireland

Bulgaria now knows it will take a miracle for them to qualify for that precious World Cup play-off game out of Group Eight. While the Bulgarians are capable of winning in Cyprus and taking care of Georgia at home those potential six points may not be enough. The ball is truly in Ireland's court and bar a catastrophe the green and whites should overcome Montenegro on October 14.

That's not to say that Ireland's game against Italy 4 days earlier is immaterial. It's very important to keep the Italians honest but it's inevitable that the blue legends of World Cup football will automatically qualify. Italy's last game on October 14 is at home to Cyprus. What punter in right mind would back against Marcello Lippi's Italia? Nobody would.

You'd think such confidence in qualifying would be the same for Ireland but there's always that doubt. What if Italy beat them on October 10, that is possible? It could come down to that last game against Montenegro for Trapattoni's Ireland. And if the Irish can't beat Montenegro at Croke Park then Ireland do not deserve a play-off game.

No doubt Trapattoni will not change his message for his players, "Win, tie, no loss." So far it has worked. And it may well see him through to that all-important runner's-up spot. The big question is what team will Ireland meet for the home and away qualifier?

It's a brave call to pick the runner up in Group One. Five points separate the top 4 teams in a group of only six. Denmark gets the call as they have gone unbeaten so far in the qualifiers. With their two remaining games at home the Danes look set for the road to Africa. However nothing is set in concrete for now. Sweden, Portugal and Hungary are all within striking distance to win this group. While Hungary has it all to do Portugal could sneak in the back door past Sweden with the way the remaining schedule is shaping up. If Ireland had their pick they would pass on Portugal or Sweden.

Mathematically in Group Two it's also between 4 teams with Israel the long shot. It's going to boil down to Switzerland, Greece and Latvia with just 3 points separating these European dark horses. There is a buzz around the Swiss camp with a strong belief that they can make it to Africa. Greece in their last two fixtures has home advantage and already they look like a runner-up. It's hard to see Latvia getting past the Swiss and the Greeks.

Who would have thought that Slovakia, Slovenia and Northern Ireland would put it up to the Czech Republic and Poland in Group 3? The match up of Slovakia and Slovenia in the group's next game sets up yet another exciting finale in group stage. It's possible for Northern Ireland but with only one game left the odds are against them. The Czechs are the ones to watch out for with home advantage over Poland and Northern Ireland. Slovakia has booked their ticket to South Africa with Slovenia and the Republic looking more second contender. It's possible for Northern Ireland but highly unlikely.

Group 4 is done and dusted it's either going to be Germany or Russia.

In Group 5 if Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Estonia on the road, and they should, it;s curtains for Turkey. Bosnia will then be runner-up to Spain who could go all the way to the Final Four.

It's difficult to see Croatia not taking all 3 points from their final fixture against Kazakhstan. That means Ukraine must win both remaining games one of which is against England who has already qualified and who are playing very well. They just thumped Croatia 5-1 with aplomb. While the English hurt Croatia's WC hopes it's the English who could indeed book the Croats a ticket.

Serbia has a good chance to win Group 7 with France breeding down their necks. In Group 9 the Netherlands are through with Norway ousting Scotland on goal difference for second spot.

It really doesn't matter what team Ireland gets in the play off but it would be nice to avoid Portugal, Germany and France.

While Sweden, Switzerland, Greece, Norway and Croatia would also prove a hand-full for Ireland Solvenia, Bosnia and Serbia are no pushovers.

Should the Irish secure the one offer, and they should, does it matter who they get at the end of the day? Rest assured that most of the possible runner-ups would prefer to avoid Ireland but would indeed fancy their chances against them.

Of course anything can happen but one thing is for sure, England, Netherlands, Spain, Brazil, Paraguay, Ghana, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Korea DPR are on their way to join hosts South Africa.